Market Euphoria Extends into New Week 11/05/2026

        HOT stories for today

Market wrap:

• Stocks ended the week on firmer footing Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both closing at fresh all-time highs as investors looked past geopolitical noise and focused on resilient U.S. data. April payrolls rose by 115,000, marking a second straight upside surprise and reinforcing the view that the labor market remains strong enough to withstand higher rates. For Wall Street, the report lowered the urgency for near-term Fed cuts, especially as the central bank faces the prospect of a leadership transition. The Middle East remained a major focus. The Iran ceasefire largely held despite Gulf clashes and tensions around key shipping routes. Crude pushed toward $95, but oil’s broader weekly decline suggested traders are still pricing in a path toward de-escalation rather than a deeper regional conflict. 
• That optimism remains fragile. The U.S. said it was awaiting Tehran’s response to a ceasefire proposal over the weekend, but President Donald Trump later rejected the offer, while Iran said it would “never bow.” The standoff risks prolonging the conflict and keeping energy markets volatile. The energy crunch is also expected to be a key topic when Chinese President Xi Jinping meets Trump in Beijing on May 14-15, with investors watching for any signs of coordination or further strain between the two powers. Still, many market watchers expect U.S. equities to remain resilient. This week, attention turns to April CPI and PPI data for fresh clues on how the conflict is feeding into inflation. Earnings from Under Armour and Cisco will also help shape sentiment.

Wall Street’s New Trade: ‘NACHO’

• Wall Street has found a new acronym trade: “NACHO,” short for “Not a chance Hormuz opens,” reflecting growing expectations that the Strait of Hormuz will remain effectively shut amid the Iran conflict. The trade has quickly spread across bond and commodity markets. Treasury yields have moved higher, long-term inflation expectations are climbing, and traders have largely abandoned forecasts for two Fed rate cuts in 2026. Some derivatives markets are even beginning to price in the possibility of a rate hike next year. Oil prices hovering near $100 a barrel also reflect expectations that disruptions around Hormuz may persist. The tightening in the Treasury yield curve has echoed dynamics last seen during the inflation shock of 2022. Yet U.S. equities continue to resist the pressure from the “NACHO” trade.
• Investors have instead focused on resilient economic data, strong first-quarter earnings and massive AI-related infrastructure spending. The S&P 500 has continued to push toward record highs as companies tied to semiconductors, energy, industrials, and AI infrastructure benefit from the investment boom. Strategists say the market is effectively pricing in either a future deal with Iran, or the idea that corporate earnings can continue growing even without one. 

Stocks on the move:

• CoreWeave (CRWV): Shares fell 7% after second-quarter revenue guidance came in below Wall Street expectations. The company forecast revenue of $2.45 billion to $2.6 billion, with the midpoint missing LSEG estimates.
• Microchip Technology (MCHP): Shares rose 3% after the chipmaker beat fiscal fourth-quarter earnings and revenue estimates and issued stronger-than-expected guidance for the current quarter.
• IREN Limited (IREN): Shares jumped more than 8% after announcing a deal with Nvidia to deploy up to five gigawatts of AI infrastructure. Nvidia also plans to invest $2.1 billion in the company.
• Trade Desk (TTD): Shares dropped nearly 13% after current-quarter revenue guidance fell short of expectations. First-quarter adjusted earnings also missed analyst estimates.
• Expedia (EXPE): Shares slid 7% after second-quarter revenue guidance came in roughly in line with expectations but failed to impress investors.

Watchlist: MU, MOS, CEG, CRCL, INTC, NVDA, XOM, FOX, META

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

10:00 am: Existing Home Sales


Earnings

BMC (Before Market Open): Constellation Energy (CEG), Circle Internet (CRCL), Fox Corp. (FOX), Mosaci Co. (MOS)

AMC (After Market Close): Simon Property (SPG), AST Spacemobile (ASTS), Steris Plc. (STE)

 

The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!