GDP and PCE Test Growth And Inflation 09/04/2026

HOT stories for today

Market wrap:

• U.S. stocks rallied Wednesday as easing tensions in the Middle East spurred a rebound in risk appetite, with the S&P 500 advancing 2.51% and the Nasdaq Composite climbing 2.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged more than 1,300 points, or 2.85%, for its strongest session since April 2025, when President Donald Trump dialed back some of his initial tariff threats. The gains followed Trump’s announcement late Tuesday that he would pause attacks on Iran, fueling hopes for de-escalation in a five-week conflict that had disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global oil shipments. The proposed ceasefire was tied to Iran reopening the waterway. Tehran agreed to restore access for the next two weeks as long as attacks stop, according to a statement from Iran’s foreign minister, while media reports said Israel had also signed on. Still, the agreement quickly began to show signs of strain. Oil markets continued to signal supply concerns despite the diplomatic breakthrough.
• Spot Brent crude traded above $120 a barrel on Wednesday, about $30 above the June futures contract, indicating physical supplies are likely to remain tight even if the ceasefire holds. Analysts said it could take months for disrupted oil flows to recover, even if a lasting U.S.-Iran truce and broader peace accord emerge. By Thursday morning, sentiment had turned more cautious. Oil extended gains on renewed fears of further disruption, while Asia-Pacific equities declined, led by South Korea’s Kospi. Futures pointed to a mixed start for markets in Europe and the U.S. A couple of catalysts await traders later Thursday morning. The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, is due at 8:30 a.m., alongside weekly jobless claims.

Trump Revives Greenland Talk as Iran Tensions Simmer

• President Donald Trump said U.S. forces will remain deployed in and around Iran until Tehran complies with what he called the “real agreement,” warning that any violation would trigger an unprecedented military response. “All U.S. ships, aircraft and military personnel…will remain in place,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, adding that if terms aren’t met, “the ‘Shootin’ Starts’ — bigger, better and stronger than anyone has ever seen before.” In a separate post, Trump struck a more combative tone, saying the U.S. military is “loading up and resting,” while hinting at future ambitions abroad. His remarks came alongside renewed criticism of NATO and a revival of interest in Greenland, the Danish autonomous territory. Trump said the alliance “wasn’t there when we needed them,” underscoring growing strains between Washington and its security partners following the Iran conflict. The comments followed Trump’s meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the White House, where press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the alliance had “turned their backs on the American people.”
• Meanwhile, a fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran showed signs of strain. Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused Washington of breaching the two-week agreement, citing Israel’s continued strikes in Lebanon, a drone incursion into Iranian airspace and U.S. opposition to Iran’s uranium enrichment. The White House reiterated that the deal requires the Strait of Hormuz to reopen fully, “without limitation, including tolls.” While some vessels have resumed transit, shipping volumes remain subdued amid uncertainty over payment terms. Oil prices extended gains on renewed concerns that tensions could escalate and disrupt supplies, reversing part of the prior session’s sharp decline, the biggest drop in U.S. crude since 2020. Equities were more cautious. Asia-Pacific markets declined Thursday, led by South Korea’s Kospi, while futures signaled a mixed open for Europe and U.S. stocks.

Stocks on the move:

Meta (META): rose 6.5% for its biggest gain since January after a $14 billion talent acquisition. The company said Muse Spark, its native multimodal reasoning model, beat Google Gemini on internal benchmarks and matched the capabilities of the canceled Llama 4 Maverick with more than an order of magnitude less compute, though some users reported login issues after launch.

Workday (WDAY): fell 7% as defensive software names came under pressure.

Palantir (PLTR): dropped 6% in the software selloff, though it remained a closely watched name.

Caterpillar (CAT): gained 7% as industrial and machinery stocks rallied on hopes of more normal trade flows.

Carvana (CVNA): gained 5.81% after lower fuel costs improved the outlook for used-vehicle demand.

AppLovin (APP): fell 4.69% as investors rotated away from high-multiple ad-tech names.

Watchlist: PLTR, CVNA, APP, META, AAPL, DE, COIN, MU, SNDK, INTC

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time
08:30 am: USD Core PCE Price Index
08:30 am: USD Unemployment Claims
08:30 am: USD Final GDP (q/q)
10:00 am: USD Final Wholesale Inventories


Earnings

BMC (Before Market Open): Neogen Corp. (NEOG), BlackBerry Limited (BB), The Simply Good Foods (SMPL)
AMC (After Market Close): WD-40 Company (WDFC), Simulations Plus (SLP)


The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!