Iran Tension Weigh On Markets 07/04/2026

HOT stories for today

Market wrap:

• Stocks rose Monday, with most sectors finishing in positive territory as investors grew more confident that the Iran conflict may be nearing a ceasefire. The S&P 500 added 0.44%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.54% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.36%. That optimism was tempered later in the day after President Donald Trump renewed his warning that the US would strike Iran’s power plants and bridges if Tehran failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday. Trump said he had chosen to extend the deadline by one day because he felt action “the day after Easter” would be inappropriate. “They have ’til tomorrow,” Trump told reporters. “They’re negotiating, we think in good faith.” He added that several countries were helping push for an end to the conflict because they were also being affected by it. Axios reported that the US, Iran and other intermediaries were discussing terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire that could pave the way for a permanent end to the war.
• Reuters separately reported that Washington and Tehran were reviewing a Pakistan-brokered proposal to end the conflict. Monday’s rally reflected growing investor confidence that a resolution could be close. Still, JPMorgan analysts warned that gasoline prices could climb to $5 a gallon if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through mid-April, now little more than a week away. In broader market commentary, JPMorgan Chase Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon released his annual shareholder letter, offering a preview of themes expected to feature in the bank’s quarterly results next week and a wider assessment of current market conditions. Dimon cautioned that there may still be “a skunk at the party.” Investors now turn to Tuesday’s preliminary durable goods orders data for February.

Oil Holds Firm as Hormuz Reopening Uncertain

• Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz picked up modestly over the weekend, offering a tentative sign of stabilization ahead of President Donald Trump’s latest deadline for Iran to reopen the key waterway. A total of 21 vessels transited the strait across Saturday and Sunday, the highest two-day flow since early March, though volumes remain well below preconflict levels. The limited recovery underscores how fragile conditions remain, with shipping still constrained despite incremental progress. Markets appear skeptical that the Tuesday deadline will trigger a decisive breakthrough. Investors are largely pricing in the likelihood of another postponement, as negotiations continue without a clear resolution.  
• Oil prices reflected that cautious tone, rising only modestly even as geopolitical risks remain elevated. West Texas Intermediate settled up 0.8% near $112 a barrel, while Brent gained around 0.7%, holding above $109 as traders weighed the risk of escalation against ongoing diplomatic efforts.  More broadly, crude has remained supported above $110 as the looming US deadline and continued disruption in Hormuz keep investors on edge, with markets increasingly sensitive to any shift in rhetoric or military posture.  For now, the key takeaway is that while tanker traffic is improving, the Strait of Hormuz remains far from fully operational — and oil markets continue to trade less on flows and more on geopolitics and the risk of sudden escalation.

Stocks on the move:

• Netflix (NFLX): Shares rose 1.5% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to buy from neutral, citing continued leadership in content and strong potential for long-term capital returns.
• Soleno Therapeutics (SLNO): The stock surged nearly 40% after Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) agreed to acquire the company for $53 per share in cash, valuing the deal at about $2.9 billion.
• Twilio (TWLO): Shares gained more than 3% after Jefferies upgraded the stock to buy from hold, highlighting its growing role in voice AI development.
• MARA Holdings (MARA), MicroStrategy (MSTR), Coinbase (COIN): Crypto-linked stocks advanced as bitcoin climbed more than 1% above $69,000. MARA rose over 2%, MicroStrategy jumped nearly 4%, and Coinbase added more than 3%.

Watchlist: COIN, XOM, NFLX, JPM, AAPL, TSLA, MU, INTC

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

08:30 am: USD Durable Goods Orders, Core Durable Goods Orders
12:35 pm: USD FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks


Earnings


AMC (After Market Close): Levi Strauss (LEVI), Aehr Test Systems (AEHR), Skillsoft Corp. (SKIL)



The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!