Labor Market in Focus as JOLTS Data Hits 31/03/2026

HOT stories for today

Market wrap:

• US stocks ended mixed on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq extending their pullback as investors weighed fresh signals from the Middle East and the Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 fell 0.39%, marking a third straight decline and leaving the index just over 9% below its closing high. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.73%, pressured by another weak session for technology shares, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a 49-point gain, or 0.11%. Geopolitical tensions remained a central driver. The CBOE Volatility Index, a widely watched measure of market anxiety, climbed above 30 during the session, while US oil prices also moved higher at the start of the week. At the same time, investors got some tentative signs that the conflict could be moving toward a resolution.
• President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post that “great progress has been made” in US discussions with what he described as a “new, and more reasonable” regime to end military operations in Iran. A day earlier, Trump said Iran had accepted most of a 15-point US proposal and had allowed 20 additional oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also helped steady sentiment, saying inflation remains contained and that there is currently no need for additional rate increases. Investors now turn to Tuesday’s March consumer confidence data and February JOLTS job openings report for further clues on the health of the US economy.

Powell Sees No Case for Rate Hike Now

• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored despite higher energy prices, signaling the central bank sees no need to respond with rate increases for now. Speaking Monday at Harvard University, Powell said the Fed should look through short-term swings in oil and focus instead on its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. He described the current policy rate range of 3.5% to 3.75% as “a good place” for the central bank to remain while it assesses the economic effects of the Iran war and tariffs. Powell said the Fed is not yet at a point where it needs to decide whether rising energy costs warrant a policy response, though officials remain alert to that possibility. He warned that tightening too soon could hurt the economy after the oil shock had already faded, making it the wrong tool for a supply-driven inflation burst. Markets appeared to take the comments as dovish. Traders sharply scaled back expectations for a rate hike this year, with the implied probability of an increase by December falling to about 2.2%, down from better than 50% as recently as Friday morning. 
• Market-based inflation gauges also suggest limited concern about a lasting inflation surge. The five-year breakeven rate was around 2.56% and has drifted lower over the past 10 days. Powell, whose term as chair ends in mid-May, declined to comment on the policy preferences of his designated successor, former Governor Kevin Warsh, saying he would not engage on that issue. Warsh’s nomination remains stalled in the Senate Banking Committee amid a separate investigation tied to renovations at Fed headquarters. On financial stability, Powell said the Fed is monitoring strain in the $3 trillion private-credit market, where defaults are rising, and investors are pulling money. Still, he said, officials do not currently see signs that the correction poses a broader systemic risk or threat of contagion to the banking system.

Stocks on the move:

• Fannie Mae (FNMA), Freddie Mac (FMCC): Shares of the mortgage-finance companies surged more than 30% after Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman said in a post on X that the stocks are “stupidly cheap” and could rise tenfold.
• Boston Scientific (BSX): Shares of the medical-device maker fell more than 9% after Raymond James downgraded the stock to outperform from strong buy and lowered its estimates below Wall Street consensus, citing softer trends in key growth areas.
• Palo Alto Networks (PANW): Shares of the cybersecurity company jumped more than 7% after Chief Executive Officer Nikesh Arora disclosed Friday that he bought $10 million of stock on the open market.
• United Therapeutics (UTHR): Shares rose nearly 13% to a 52-week high after the drugmaker reported positive Phase 3 trial results for Tyvaso and said it plans to seek a priority review from the Food and Drug Administration to expand the therapy’s label to idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Watchlist: XOM, COIN, NVDA, META, MKC, MSFT, AMZN, TSLA

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

09:45 am: USD Chicago PMI
10:00 am: USD JOLTS Job Openings
10:00 am: USD Consumer Confidence
12:00 pm: USD FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks
03:00 pm: USD FOMC Member Barr Speaks


Earnings

BMO (Before Market Open): McCormick (MKC), TD SYNNEX Corp. (SNX), FactSet Research (FDS), Chagee Holdings (HCA)

AMC (After Market Close): Nike Inc. (NKE), PVH Corp. (PHV), RH (RH), nCino Inc. (NCNO)




The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!