A Volatile Year Start Raises Questions for Markets 02/02/2026

HOT stories for today

Market wrap:

• U.S. equities ended the week mixed, with uneven results from mega-cap technology firms pressuring sentiment and leaving the major benchmarks little changed. The S&P 500 added 0.3% for the week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.2%, according to FactSet. Microsoft shares dropped almost 8% after the company posted softer-than-expected expansion in its cloud business and flagged expenses that topped forecasts. Investors will stay focused on the tech sector in the days ahead, with results due from several AI-linked names, including Palantir Technologies, Advanced Micro Devices, and Qualcomm. About 33% of S&P 500 constituents have reported fourth-quarter earnings so far; roughly 75% have beaten analysts’ profit estimates, slightly below the five-year average of 78%. Cryptocurrencies fell as retail traders absorbed a volatile week across markets.
• In late Saturday trading, Bitcoin dropped below $79,000, down 6.1%. Ethereum slid about 9% to $2,445.31, and Solana fell 9.9% to $105.50. The decline followed Trump’s selection of Kevin Warsh, a move that lifted the dollar and eased some investor concern over the central bank’s independence. A firmer dollar can weigh on bitcoin’s appeal as an alternative currency. If confirmed by the Senate, Warsh would succeed Jerome Powell, whose term as chair ends in May. Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell, particularly for resisting calls to cut interest rates since taking the job in 2018. The drop in crypto added to the pressure on retail traders after spot silver suffered its steepest one-day selloff since March 1980. Spot silver was down 28% at $83.45 an ounce, near the session low, while silver futures sank 31.4% to settle at $78.53.

January’s Geopolitical Shockwaves Signal a Tougher Year for Investors

• As the calendar turns to February, investors may be forced to confront an uncomfortable conclusion from the year’s opening month: Donald Trump’s efforts in January to project U.S. power well beyond its borders risk cementing politics as a routine, and dominant force in markets through 2026. Wall Street started the year under a barrage of geopolitical headlines that drove sharp cross-asset swings. The dollar slid to a four-year low, while demand for havens helped push gold above $5,000 an ounce. Industrial metals surged as copper notched a fresh record, and crude climbed to a six-month high as traders weighed supply risks and the potential for policy-driven disruptions. At the same time, long-dated Treasuries came under pressure, extending a selloff that sent yields higher and revived questions about how much term premium investors will demand in a more unpredictable policy environment. 
• Equities largely absorbed the turbulence. U.S. stocks ended January in the green, though the path there was uneven, with volatility flaring as investors recalibrated positions amid shifting geopolitical assumptions and potential knock-on effects on inflation, growth, and corporate earnings. The bigger concern for portfolio managers is that January may have been a preview rather than an anomaly. If politics continues to set the agenda, from trade and sanctions to security arrangements and diplomatic flashpoints, investors could face a year where macro narratives are repeatedly rewritten, correlations break down, and risk premia rise. For markets, that would mean more frequent regime shifts: abrupt rotations between defensives and cyclicals, persistent demand for hedges, and a higher bar for conviction trades.

Stocks on the move:

• Newmont (NEM), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX): The miners slid 9.6% and 7.6%, respectively, tracking a pullback in precious metals after gold and silver retreated from record highs. The move followed Donald Trump’s selection of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair, easing some investor concern over the central bank’s independence.
• Apple (AAPL): Shares fell 1.3% even after the company posted stronger-than-expected fiscal first-quarter results, helped by robust demand for its iPhone 17 lineup released in September. Apple reported earnings of $2.84 a share versus the $2.67 expected by analysts surveyed by LSEG, while revenue came in at $143.76 billion, topping the $138.48 billion consensus. iPhone revenue jumped 23% year over year to $85.27 billion.
• Chevron (CVX): The oil major beat fourth-quarter profit expectations, supported by record output. Chevron earned an adjusted $1.52 a share, ahead of the $1.45 LSEG consensus, sending the stock up more than 1%.
• SanDisk (SNDK): The data-storage maker jumped 10% after issuing upbeat guidance. SanDisk forecast fiscal third-quarter adjusted earnings of $12 to $14 a share, far above the $5.11 FactSet consensus. The company’s second-quarter results also topped Wall Street estimates on both revenue and profit.
• Visa (V): Shares slipped 2.6% despite better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter results. Visa posted adjusted earnings of $3.17 a share on $10.9 billion in revenue, supported by strength in cross-border payments and payment volumes, topping LSEG estimates for $3.14 a share and $10.69 billion.

Watchlist: PLTR, SNDK, TSLA, DIS, IDXX, TSN, XOM, SLV, HL, NVDA

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

09:45 am: USD Final Manufacturing PMI
10:00 am: USD ISM Manufacturing PMI, Prices
12:30 pm: USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks


Earnings

BMO ( Before Market Open): Walt Disney (DIS), Tyson Foods (TSN)

AMC (After Market Close): Palantir (PLTR), Simon Property (SPG), NXP Semiconductors. (NXPI), Teradyne (TER)



The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!