Markets Enter Fed Week as Rally Faces Test 26/01/2026

                                                                    HOT stories for today






Market wrap:

• Wall Street is coming off a bruising week after a flare-up in geopolitical tensions rattled risk appetite. Nerves eased into Friday after President Donald Trump said a “framework” agreement had been reached on Greenland. Even so, the S&P 500 slipped about 0.4% for the week, marking a second straight weekly decline. A hotter inflation reading on Thursday gave way to a steadier consumer pulse on Friday. One-year inflation expectations cooled, confidence firmed, and overall sentiment improved, a rare bright spot after a stretch of headlines that had swung from tariff threats to Greenland speculation to earnings surprises. 
• Currency traders were also focused on the Japanese yen, which notched its strongest one-day jump in six months on speculation Japan could take aggressive steps to arrest the currency’s slide, echoing intervention seen in 2024, Bloomberg reported. In corporate results, Intel ran into a gap between narrative and reality. While the company’s quarterly numbers were broadly acceptable, its outlook for a tougher-than-expected first quarter weighed heavily on the shares. The week ahead shifts the spotlight to the Federal Reserve, which is due to deliver its first policy decision of the year on Wednesday. Officials are widely expected to hold rates steady, leaving investors parsing the statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s comments for signals on when rate cuts could begin. Gold tops $5,100 as investors seek refuge from global risks. Asia-Pacific stocks trade mixed as geopolitical worries keep investors on edge.

Global Rally Faces Test

• The global stock rally that roared through 2025 is starting to look increasingly fragile, with market veterans warning that a long stretch without a meaningful pullback has left equities exposed as lofty valuations run headlong into geopolitical and policy risks. Stocks began 2026 in positive territory, the MSCI All Country World Index is up more than 2% this year and set a record on Jan. 15 after a 20.6% gain in 2025, LSEG data show,  but some strategists argue the calm itself is part of the problem. Goldman Sachs’ Timothy Moe said markets have historically endured corrections of 10% or more about every 8 to 9 months, and that the absence of one for roughly 9 months has made investors more vulnerable to a sudden shift in sentiment, especially if geopolitics provides the catalyst.
• So far, traders have largely treated flashpoints, including the standoff over Greenland, as background noise, and have repeatedly bid stocks higher when President Donald Trump has softened tariff threats, fueling the so-called “TACO” trade shorthand for “Trump Always Chickens Out.” Schwab’s Kevin Gordon said correction risk is indeed rising, though more because stretched valuations and frothy sentiment can amplify any downturn than because markets are “overdue” on a calendar. Others point to narrowing leadership around megacaps and growing scrutiny of whether the AI spending boom can keep delivering earnings momentum, conditions that could turn an otherwise minor shock into a sharper pullback.

Watchlist: INTC, SLV, MRNA, STLD, NVDA, META, TSLA, COIN

Stocks on the move:

• Fortinet (FTNT): Shares jumped more than 7% after TD Cowen upgraded the cybersecurity company to buy from hold, saying higher memory prices should be less of a headwind than some fear. The firm’s $100 target implies about 29% upside.
• Bausch Health (BHC): The stock sank 9% after a late-stage trial of an experimental treatment missed its targets. The company was developing a therapy for hepatic encephalopathy, a liver-disease complication that can impair brain function.
• Moderna (MRNA): Shares fell 6%, snapping a four-day winning streak, after CEO Stephane Bancel told Bloomberg TV the company doesn’t plan to fund new late-stage vaccine trials amid US opposition to immunizations.
• Intel (INTC): The stock slid 16% after a mixed fourth quarter and a weak forecast. Intel sees first-quarter revenue of $11.7 billion to $12.7 billion, with adjusted profit breakeven, versus LSEG estimates of $12.51 billion in revenue and 5 cents a share.
• Clorox (CLX): Shares rose nearly 3% after the company agreed to buy Gojo Industries, maker of Purell, for $2.25 billion. Clorox reaffirmed its 2026 outlook, excluding the deal’s impact.

Key Economic Events Today (EST):

08:30 am: USD Core Durable Goods Orders


Earnings Calendar:

BMO (Before Market Open): Ryanair (RYAAY), Steel Dynamics (STLD)
AMC (After Market Close): Nucor Corp (NUE), Crane Company (CR)



The TEFS Analyst Team wishes you a successful trading day!