Trump’s First 100 Days rattle markets 30/04/2025

HOT stories for today

 

US market wrap:
 

• U.S. stocks finished Tuesday in positive territory after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC that the White House was nearing a new trade agreement, though he did not specify which country. Later in the day, President Donald Trump said tariff discussions with India were “progressing well” and suggested a deal could be finalized soon. Additionally, Trump signed an executive order easing certain auto tariffs.
• In Monday’s session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 300 points, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.58%, marking the sixth consecutive day of gains—the longest such streak since July for the Dow and November for the S&P. The Nasdaq Composite, led by tech, rose 0.55%. Looking ahead, markets are bracing for a wave of closely watched economic data on Wednesday that could provide insight into recession risks and influence the next direction for stocks.
   

Trump’s First 100 Days rattle markets
 

• Wall Street just wrapped the worst first 100 days under a U.S. president in over 50 years. Since Trump’s second inauguration, the S&P 500 has dropped 7.3%, the Dow 6.8%, and the Nasdaq 11%, as sweeping tariffs and escalating trade tensions—especially with China—shook investor confidence. A surprise April 2 announcement of 145% tariffs on Chinese imports sent markets into a tailspin, triggering the steepest four-day selloff since March 2020. While a partial rebound followed, volatility remains elevated.
• Historically, weak starts like this lead to poor full-year returns—and analysts warn the real economic damage from tariffs could show up in earnings and growth data over the next few months. Now, all eyes are on whether Washington’s next policy moves can calm markets or deepen investor anxiety.
   

Stocks on the move:

• Starbucks (SBUX) — Shares of the coffee chain dipped 4% after the company missed both earnings and revenue expectations for its fiscal second quarter. Same-store sales declined for the fifth consecutive quarter, adding to investor concerns.
• First Solar (FSLR) — The solar tech firm tumbled 10% after issuing disappointing full-year guidance. First Solar projected earnings between $12.50 and $17.50 per share, falling short of the $18.14 consensus forecast from LSEG. Additionally, Q1 earnings came in below expectations.
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) — Shares of the server manufacturer dropped 16% in after-hours trading following weaker-than-anticipated preliminary results for its fiscal third quarter. The company also lowered its previously issued guidance for the quarter ended March 31.
• Snap (SNAP) — Despite beating first-quarter revenue estimates, Snap’s shares sank more than 12% after it declined to issue forward guidance due to macroeconomic uncertainty, raising concerns about future ad demand.
• Caesars Entertainment (CZR) — The casino and hospitality group gained 3% after reporting Q1 revenue of $2.79 billion, in line with LSEG forecasts. However, the company posted a wider-than-expected loss of 54 cents per share, compared to analysts' estimate of a 19-cent loss.
   

Today’s action

• Asia-Pacific markets saw mixed performance on Wednesday as investors digested fresh regional economic data and braced for major policy and earnings developments. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.14% ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy decision, where rates are expected to remain steady at 0.5%. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.53%, and China’s CSI 300 traded flat after April’s manufacturing PMI dropped deeper into contraction than anticipated.
• In the U.S., stock futures were mixed Tuesday evening. S&P 500 futures declined 0.4%, Nasdaq 100 futures lost 0.6%, while Dow futures ticked up 71 points, or 0.2%, as investors prepared for a wave of critical economic data and key earnings. The first estimate of Q1 GDP is expected to show sluggish annualized growth of 0.4%, though some Wall Street banks have already lowered forecasts toward negative territory. March’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index — a key Fed inflation gauge — is also due, with forecasts pointing to flat monthly growth and 2.2% annual inflation. Earnings from tech heavyweights Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) are also set to report later in the day, likely to influence broader market sentiment.

Watchlist: META, MSFT, SNAP, SBUX, V, SMCI, FSLR, STX,CAT
 

Bitcoin
 

• Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $95,371.91, up 1.37% in the past 24 hours and 4.59% over the past week, hovering near the top of its daily range between $93,498.21 and $95,468.81, according to Coinmarketcap. Despite the price climb, market activity has eased, with 24-hour trading volume down 19.34% to $24.86 billion.
• Coinglass futures data shows mild calm in the derivatives market — open interest dipped 1.35% to $62.51 billion, and total liquidations were minimal at $73,960. Long positions took a small hit, but overall sentiment remains steady. A decisive breakout above the $96,500 resistance, accompanied by strong volume, could ignite fresh bullish momentum and push BTC toward the $98,000 to $100,000 range.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 74 000-100 000, Ethereum:1500-2600, Solana: 80-150
   

Forex
 

• The EUR/USD pair edged higher to around 1.1390 during early Asian trading Wednesday, supported by a weaker US Dollar after job openings fell to 7.19 million in March—the lowest since September 2024. Traders now turn their focus to key German economic releases, including retail sales, CPI, and GDP, along with the US PCE inflation report due later in the day.
• The Japanese Yen showed little clear direction on Wednesday, pressured by softer domestic data and reduced safe-haven demand amid improved global risk sentiment. Optimism over easing US-China trade tensions and flexibility on US auto tariffs helped lift market mood. However, expectations for further Bank of Japan rate hikes in 2025 may help cushion the JPY ahead of Thursday’s BoJ policy decision.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0700-1.1600, USD/JPY: 140-144
   

Basic Materials
 

• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude extended losses for a third straight session on Wednesday, trading near $59.50 per barrel during Asian hours. The decline comes amid mounting concerns over slowing global economic growth and softer fuel demand, largely driven by uncertainty around U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies. WTI is on track for a monthly drop of over 15% — its steepest since November 2021 — as traders also brace for the May 5 OPEC+ meeting, where the alliance may accelerate planned output increases.
• Gold (XAU/USD) fell for a second consecutive session, edging closer to $3,300 as safe-haven flows receded. Signs of easing U.S.-China trade tensions and flexibility on U.S. auto tariffs buoyed broader risk sentiment, while a modest rebound in the U.S. Dollar added further pressure on the non-yielding metal. Still, expectations for Fed rate cuts could cap USD strength and help limit deeper losses in gold.
  Watchlist: GOLD 2600-3500, US Oil: 57.00-70.00

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time
08:15 am: USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
08:30 am: USD GDP
09:45 am: USD Chicago PMI
10:00 am: USD Core PCE Price Index
10:00 am: USD Pending Home Sales
10:30 am: USD Crude Oil Inventories

Earnings

BMO (Before the US Market opens)
CAT         Caterpillar Inc.
ADP         Automatic Data Processing.
SAN         Banco Santander
USB         UBS AG
AMC (After the US Market closes): MSFT, META, QCOM

The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!