Midterm Elections: What's at Stake for Markets? 03/11/2026
Market Wrap
U.S. stocks reversed early gains Monday as investors continued rotating out of technology shares and into traditional sectors, with concerns over AI financing weighing on sentiment ahead of the midterm elections.
The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.07% to 25,164.32, while the S&P 500 declined 0.51% to 7,541.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average bucked the trend, adding 213.67 points, or 0.41%, to 51,983.98.
Technology stocks erased an early rally. Nvidia (NVDA) and Meta Platforms (META) each slipped about 1%, while Apple (AAPL) fell nearly 2% ahead of its earnings release.
Marvell Technology (MRVL) plunged almost 13% and Lumentum (LITE) dropped 18% following their announced $115 billion merger. Oracle (ORCL) sank 8% after outlining plans to raise $20 billion through stock and bond offerings to fund AI infrastructure.
The Dow benefited from gains in traditional industrial and consumer names. Sherwin-Williams (SHW) rose nearly 6%, Home Depot (HD) gained 3.6%, and Honeywell (HON), 3M (MMM) and Boeing (BA) each advanced more than 2%.
Tuesday's U.S. midterm elections add political uncertainty, with prediction markets signaling an increased likelihood of Democratic gains in Congress. Investors are also watching reports of U.S. strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, which pushed oil prices higher despite diplomatic efforts.
Attention now turns to September JOLTS job openings and factory orders at 10:00 a.m. ET, alongside a busy earnings calendar. Pfizer (PFE), Shopify (SHOP), Eaton (ETN) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) report before the open, followed by AMD (AMD) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) after the close.
Apple Shares Slide as Margin Outlook Overshadows Earnings Beat
Apple (AAPL) declined about 3% in after-hours trading after its fiscal fourth-quarter revenue and profit exceeded estimates but its December-quarter gross-margin forecast disappointed investors.
The iPhone maker posted earnings of $2.10 per share versus $1.99 expected, while revenue climbed 12% to $114.48 billion, ahead of the $113.39 billion consensus.
iPhone revenue reached $57.58 billion, topping forecasts of $56.54 billion, while Mac sales of $10.79 billion also beat expectations. However, iPad revenue of $6.23 billion and wearables revenue of $8.3 billion fell short.
Apple projected December-quarter revenue growth of 7%–10%, above analysts' 6.1% estimate, but its gross-margin outlook of 45%–46% missed the 46.3% consensus and was below the latest quarter's 47.9%.
New CEO John Ternus, who succeeded Tim Cook in September, highlighted strong product launches and demand despite component shortages, currency pressures and higher memory costs.
Apple raised iPhone prices by $100 earlier this year to help offset more expensive components. Management said supply constraints remain a challenge even as the company delivered its strongest fiscal year on record.
The results highlight Wall Street's increasing focus on margins and cash generation, with stronger-than-expected sales offering limited support when forward profitability falls short.
Stocks on the Move
- Upwork (UPWK): Shares jumped 10% after the freelance marketplace raised its full-year adjusted earnings outlook to $1.45–$1.47 per share, exceeding the $1.39 consensus.
- Palantir Technologies (PLTR): Shares fell 2% despite third-quarter revenue nearly doubling and topping $2 billion for the first time. U.S. commercial revenue surged 148% to $984 million, while the company projected fourth-quarter revenue of approximately $2.65 billion.
- Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC): Shares surged 8% after better-than-expected third-quarter sales and an upgraded outlook. Fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $325 million–$345 million topped the $293 million consensus.
- Clorox (CLX): Shares gained 2% after fiscal first-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.55 per share on revenue of $1.91 billion beat forecasts of $1.07 and $1.88 billion, respectively.
- ON Semiconductor (ON): Shares slipped about 2% after announcing a $600 million cash acquisition of Ferric, with up to $175 million in additional contingent payments. Fourth-quarter adjusted earnings guidance of $0.95–$1.07 per share broadly met expectations.
Watchlist: AAPL, PLTR, UPWK, LSCC, CLX, ON, NVDA, META, MRVL, LITE, ORCL, SHW, HD, HON, BA, AMD, SMCI, PFE, SHOP, ETN, MPC, ANET, BKNG
Key Economic Events Today
Economic Data (ET)
- All Day — U.S. Midterm Elections
- 08:55 AM — USD Redbook Index
- 10:00 AM — USD JOLTS Job Openings (September), Factory Orders (September), Economic Optimism Index
- 04:30 PM — USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
Earnings
Before Market Open: Pfizer (PFE), Shopify (SHOP), Eaton (ETN), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Apollo Global Management (APO), Yum! Brands (YUM), BioNTech (BNTX)
After Market Close: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Arista Networks (ANET), Amgen (AMGN), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Astera Labs (ALAB)
