Shutdown Deal Nears as Pressure Mounts 10/11/2025

HOT stories for today

Market wrap:

• U.S. stock futures are pointing higher as the Senate edges toward a deal to avert a government shutdown, offering some relief after a broadly weaker week in equities driven by pressure on high-valuation AI names. The Nasdaq Composite fell 3% in its worst weekly showing since April’s tariff-induced selloff, while the S&P 500 slid 1.6% and the Dow lost 1.2%. The S&P briefly dipped below its 50-day moving average before dip buyers stepped in, helping markets finish slightly positive into the close.
• Sentiment remained fragile, however, with the University of Michigan’s latest survey showing the most pessimistic economic outlook since 2022. Investors now turn to a light earnings calendar featuring Walt Disney on Thursday. In Asia, South Korea’s Kospi jumped more than 3% in a rebound from last week’s AI-driven rout. At the same time, China announced it would suspend certain critical mineral export curbs to the U.S., suggesting a tentative easing of trade tensions.

Senate Moves Toward Shutdown Deal

• The Senate moved closer to ending the government shutdown in a rare Sunday session, clearing a 60-40 procedural vote after eight moderate Democrats backed a short-term funding agreement. The deal would keep the government funded through January and schedule a December vote on extending Affordable Care Act subsidies, while also restoring pay and reversing recent federal worker firings. The compromise has drawn criticism from progressives, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who argue it does little to address rising healthcare costs.
• The measure still needs a final Senate vote and faces an uncertain path in the House, where Speaker Mike Johnson has not committed to supporting a subsidy vote. Markets responded positively to the prospect of a resolution, viewing it as a step toward stabilizing federal operations. Yet the economic strain from the 40-day shutdown continues to grow: flight disruptions are mounting as air-traffic staffing thins, federal food assistance has been cut for millions, and business leaders are warning of more profound disruptions heading into the holiday travel season.

Stocks on the move:

• Constellation Energy (CEG) fell nearly 5% after posting third-quarter adjusted operating earnings of $3.04 per share, below the $3.11 consensus, according to FactSet. The company also reduced the upper end of its full-year earnings guidance to below analysts’ $9.49 estimate.
• Block (SQ) dropped about 10% after reporting third-quarter earnings of 54 cents per share, versus the 67 cents expected by analysts polled by LSEG. Revenue of $6.11 billion also missed the $6.31 billion forecast.
• Microchip Technology (MCHP) declined 9% after fiscal second-quarter results landed roughly in line with expectations but failed to satisfy investors. At the same time, its current-quarter revenue outlook came in softer than anticipated.
• Affirm (AFRM) rose about 5.5% after delivering stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings and revenue, with gross merchandise volume also topping Wall Street forecasts.

Watchlist: TSN, VG, AFRM, NVDA, TSLA, RBLX, HOOD, MSFT

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

08:30 am: USD FOMC Member Daly Speaks
09:45 am: USD FOMC Member Musalem Speaks


Earnings

BMO (Before Market Open): Venture Global (VG), Tyson Foods (TSN), KE Holdings (BEKE)
AMC (After Market Close): CoreWeave (CRWV), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Rocket Lab (RKLB), AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)



The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!