After Banks, It’s the Semis’ Turn: TSMC Leads Off 16/10/2025

HOT stories for today

Market wrap:

• U.S. stocks advanced on Wednesday as another round of strong bank earnings eclipsed renewed tensions in the U.S.–China trade standoff. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day little changed, up just 0.04%, after climbing as much as 422.88 points earlier in the session. The S&P 500 closed 0.4% higher, having gained as much as 1.2% intraday, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.7% after briefly rallying 1.4%.  The federal government shutdown showed little sign of resolution, with the White House vowing to pay troops and select federal employees this week despite stalled negotiations. A U.S. District Court judge in California temporarily blocked the Trump administration’s plan to dismiss certain federal workers, removing one of the few pressure points available to end what’s poised to become the third-longest shutdown in history by Friday. 
• Market strategist Bessent said recent weakness won’t deter Washington from taking a tougher stance on Beijing. At the same time, Fed official Miran cited trade frictions as an additional reason for potential rate cuts. Robust bank earnings continued to overshadow concerns over the deepening trade conflict. Bitcoin extended its recent slide, while gold surged to record highs. Oil and the dollar both retreated. Volatility remained elevated, with the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street’s so-called “fear gauge”, closing at 20.6. All eyes now turn to remarks from Federal Reserve policymakers later today for clues on the path ahead.TSM kicks off the much-anticipated semiconductor earnings season.

Big Banks Fuel Gains, but Beige Book Signals Strain

• Strong bank earnings lifted Wall Street on Wednesday, though fresh Fed data suggested cracks in the economy. Morgan Stanley jumped 4.7% after reporting a 45% surge in profit to $4.51 billion, with revenue up 18% to $18.22 billion, its most significant margin gain in nearly five years. Bank of America climbed 4.4% as quarterly profit rose 23% to $8.5 billion.
• But optimism cooled after JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon warned of hidden risks, saying, “When you see one cockroach, there are probably more.” His comments followed JPM’s $170 million payout tied to bankrupt auto lender Tricolor. BofA CFO Alastair Borthwick countered that the bank’s loan book remains solid despite limited exposure to another failed borrower, First Brands Group.
• The Fed’s Beige Book provided a sobering backdrop, citing flat growth, tariff pressures, softening labor conditions, and rising risks from the government shutdown — reminders that, beneath the bank profits, the broader economy may be losing steam.

Stocks on the move:

• Salesforce (CRM): Shares jumped more than 4% after the company issued upbeat long-term targets. Salesforce expects revenue to top $60 billion by 2030, above the $58.37 billion analyst consensus, excluding the impact of its pending Informatica acquisition.
• J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT): The trucking and logistics company surged over 12% in after-hours trading after strong Q3 results. It earned $1.76 per share on $3.05 billion in revenue, beating LSEG's estimates of $1.46 per share and $3.03 billion.
• United Airlines (UAL): Shares fell more than 2% after hours as Q3 revenue missed expectations despite solid earnings. The carrier expects an adjusted Q4 profit of between $3.00 and $3.50 per share.
• Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE): The stock slid about 8% after issuing a weaker fiscal 2026 forecast. HPE expects adjusted EPS of $2.20–$2.40 and revenue growth of 5–10%. The company also plans a 10% dividend hike and $3 billion in new buybacks.

Watchlist: AMD, AAPL, CRM, JBHT, UAL, HPE, TSM, SCHW, USB

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time
08:15 am: USD Housing Starts
08:30 am: USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
09:30 am: USD FOMC Member Waller, Barr, Miran Speaks
10:00 am: USD FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
10:00 am: USD NAHB Housing Market Index


Earnings

BMO (Before Market Open): Taiwan Semiconductor ($TSM), Charles Schwab ($SCHW), U.S. Bancorp ($USB), Infosys ($INFY), KeyCorp ($KEY), Bank of New York Mellon ($BK), and Travelers Companies ($TRV).

AMC (After Market Close): CSX ($CSX) and Interactive Brokers Group ($IBKR)


The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!