Nike Earnings ahead, Gold hits new highs 30/09/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:

• Markets pushed higher on Monday, even as lawmakers stalled on reaching any agreements and the U.S. government edged closer to a shutdown. Prediction markets now assign a 70% probability to a shutdown. While past shutdowns haven’t always rattled markets, this one could prove different.
• Investors are already uneasy about a cooling labor market, the threat of stagflation, and stretched equity valuations. A prolonged shutdown might also prompt credit rating agencies to reassess the nation’s standing, after Moody’s downgrade back in May. Meanwhile, investors seeking safe havens drove U.S. gold reserves past $1 trillion, with spot prices climbing above $3,834 per ounce on Monday.

Nike Earnings: A potential turning point

• Wall Street is watching Nike’s results on Tuesday for signs that its turnaround is gaining traction. Analysts at Jefferies said the quarter could be a “turning point” after spotting early signs of stronger demand. At the same time, Stifel called it a “meaningful milestone” in the company’s effort to recover from trend missteps and weaker spending. Since taking over a year ago, CEO Elliott Hill has refocused on athletes, cleared excess inventory of lifestyle sneakers, and launched new products, including the Pegasus and Vomero, as well as a collaboration with Skims. 
• Consensus calls for adjusted earnings of 27 cents per share on $10.99 billion in revenue, still down from last year. Nike shares are down 8% year-to-date and 21% over the past 12 months, although optimism surrounding healthier inventories and more substantial retail traffic has some analysts expecting a more upbeat outlook.

Stocks on the move:

• CSX (CSX) rose more than 3% after naming Steve Angel chief executive, replacing Joe Hinrichs. The move follows pressure from activist investor Ancora Holdings, which has criticized declining efficiency and pushed for potential mergers and acquisitions as the industry consolidates.
• Merus (MRUS) jumped 36% after agreeing to be acquired by Denmark-based Genmab for $8 billion, or $97 per share in cash. The deal is expected to close in the first quarter of 2026.
• Pony AI (PONY) gained 9% after Citi initiated coverage with a "buy" rating and a price target implying a 37% upside, stating that China’s robotaxi industry is at an inflection point.
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY) advanced almost 10% after announcing an investment in K Wave Media to develop an entertainment tokenization platform backed by Korean IP companies.
• Electronic Arts (EA) climbed 4.8% after a consortium led by Jared Kushner confirmed a $55 billion agreement to acquire the video game maker and take it private.

Watchlist: NKE, PAYX, UNFI, LW, JEF, MTN, GLXY, NVDA

Today’s action

• Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Tuesday as China’s official manufacturing PMI showed contraction for a sixth straight month, though the decline was smaller than expected. The CSI 300 opened flat, Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.1% while the Topix was unchanged, and South Korea’s Kospi was steady with the Kosdaq down 0.34%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.45%. 
• U.S. stock futures were little changed as Wall Street looks to extend September’s strength, despite the risk of a government shutdown. Dow futures fell 3 points (-0.01%), S&P 500 futures eased 0.02%, and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.03%. The S&P 500 is up more than 3% this month, the Dow has added 1.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite has surged 5.3%, leaving major indexes near record highs. Tuesday marks the end of the third quarter. On the data front, investors await JOLTS job openings, consumer confidence, and the Chicago PMI.

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin is testing the $114,000 resistance level, but analysts warn the move could turn into a “bull trap.” Holding support around $107,000 is seen as crucial to prevent a slide back toward $100,000.
• QR Asset noted that last week’s $5 billion selloff might ultimately support a recovery in the fourth quarter. Still, despite the prospect of closing September in positive territory, a renewed bullish trend is not assured, according to Arthur Driessen of Crypto Investidor. BTC was recently trading near €98,314.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 98 000-125 000, Ethereum: 4000-4980, Solana: 180-240
   

Forex

• The euro held above $ 1.1720 on Monday after Democrats rejected a Republican bill, fueling concerns about a U.S. shutdown. Fed officials stressed inflation risks, while Eurozone sentiment improved slightly but stayed below average. EUR/USD gained 0.20%, last near 1.1726.
• The yen firmed for a third day, keeping USD/JPY near its 200-day SMA. Despite weak Japanese data and a divided BoJ outlook, safe-haven demand increased amid geopolitical tensions and U.S. shutdown risks.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0700-1.1880, USD/JPY: 140-151

Basic Materials

• WTI crude extended losses in Asia on Tuesday, trading near $62.90 per barrel. Prices weakened on expectations that OPEC+ may raise output in November and after Iraq’s Kurdistan region resumed exports following a 2.5-year halt.
• Gold continued its record-setting rally, climbing above $3,850. Demand was supported by geopolitical tensions, U.S. shutdown risks, and growing bets on additional Fed rate cuts, while a softer dollar further boosted safe-haven flows into bullion.
  Watchlist: GOLD: 2600-3850, US Oil: 55.60-75.80

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

06:00 am: USD FOMC Member Jefferson Speaks
09:00 am: USD FOMC Member Collins Speaks
09:45 am: USD Chicago PMI
10:00 am: USD JOLTS Job Openings, Consumer Confidence
01:30 pm: USD FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks



Earnings

BMO (Before Market Open):

PAYX                  PayChex Inc.
LW                     Lamb Weston Holdings
UNFI                  United Natural Foods

AMC (After Market Close): NKE



The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!