Markets hang on Powell's remarks 23/09/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:

• The S&P 500 hit fresh records on Monday, driven by gains in Nvidia, after news of a new collaboration with OpenAI boosted investor confidence in the outlook for artificial intelligence. The broad equity benchmark closed the session up 0.44%, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.70% The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.14%. Equities opened the day in negative territory, but they eventually rebounded, supported by Nvidia and other major players.
• Shares of the AI chip leader surged 3.9% after announcing a $100 billion investment in OpenAI to expand data center infrastructure. Apple stock likewise jumped 4%, fueled by enthusiasm over strong iPhone sales. This week, which has historically been the weakest for the S&P 500 according to Citadel Securities data, will feature the release of the Fed’s favored inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index.

Markets hang on Powell's remarks

• Wall Street is watching Fed Chair Jerome Powell closely as stocks climb to record highs, hoping Tuesday’s speech in Rhode Island will shed light on the pace of future interest-rate cuts. Powell speaks just days after the Fed trimmed rates for the first time this year, sparking a rally. Markets expect quarter-point cuts at the October and December meetings, though the Fed’s own forecasts suggest a slower path. 
• Last week, Powell backed the move as a “risk management” step amid labor-market weakness: hiring has slowed, unemployment is edging higher, and job seekers are struggling to find work. Inflation, meanwhile, has crept near 3%, above the Fed’s 2% target, but officials say tariff-driven price pressures may be temporary. Adding to the debate, new Fed governor Stephen Miran dissented in favor of a deeper half-point cut, warning current rates risk damaging jobs. Powell isn’t expected to confront Miran directly on Tuesday but will likely argue for a gradual approach.

Stocks on the move:

• Metsera (MTSR) shares skyrocketed 60% after Pfizer (PFE) announced plans to acquire the biotech firm in a deal valued at $4.9 billion. The buyout underscores big pharma’s push into innovative therapies and signals confidence in Metsera’s drug pipeline.
• Oklo (OKLO) climbed nearly 3% as the nuclear energy startup broke ground on its Aurora reactor in Idaho. The project, designed to deliver compact and efficient nuclear power, is drawing attention amid the global shift toward clean energy.
• Applied Digital (APLD) surged more than 20% after securing $11 billion in long-term data-center leasing agreements with CoreWeave. The deal highlights robust demand for AI computing power and bolsters Applied Digital’s role in high-performance infrastructure.
• Costco (COST), meanwhile, slipped modestly ahead of its earnings report, with traders cautious about how inflation and consumer spending trends may shape results.

Watchlist: NVDA, AMD, AAPL, OKLO, AZO, MU, RDDT, GOOGL

Today’s action

• Taiwan’s Taiex jumped 1.32% to a record high on Tuesday, leading regional gains after a Wall Street tech rally sparked by Nvidia’s partnership with OpenAI. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 edged up 0.17%, while South Korea’s Kospi climbed 0.69% and the Kosdaq added 0.28% at the open. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 0.34%.
• Stock futures were little changed Monday night as investors assessed risks with equities sitting near all-time highs. Dow futures fell 18 points, or 0.04%, while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures each eased 0.04%. Attention turns to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who speaks at 12:35 p.m. ET, with markets eager for clues on future rate cuts. Before that, President Trump is scheduled to deliver remarks, and fresh manufacturing price data will be released.

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin slipped to $112,000 to start the week, triggering more than $1 billion in liquidations, the largest single wipeout of leveraged crypto longs in 2025. The bearish move set a new record for the year and has traders eyeing a potential retest of support near $100,000. The sell-off comes as markets brace for fresh inflation data and await remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, both of which are seen as catalysts for risk assets.
• At the same time, speculation is building around a possible major Bitcoin-related announcement from U.S. political leaders, adding intrigue to an already volatile market backdrop. Despite the drawdown, profitability metrics resemble patterns from past cycles, with some analysts framing the current phase as “pre-euphoria”, a stage that historically precedes a bull market peak.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 99 000-125 000, Ethereum: 4000-4980, Solana: 180-240
   

Forex

• The Japanese yen (JPY) traded in a tight range against the U.S. dollar during Tuesday’s Asian session, stalling its recovery from a two-week low. Domestic political uncertainty and economic headwinds from U.S. tariffs are seen as reasons the Bank of Japan may delay rate hikes further, capping JPY upside. A broad risk-on mood in equities also dampened demand for the safe-haven currency.
• The euro capitalized on the Greenback’s decline, with EUR/USD rallying to hover near 1.1800, up 0.47% on the day. Traders await Powell’s speech later Tuesday and upcoming flash PMI data in the U.S. and Europe for fresh direction.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0700-1.1880, USD/JPY: 140-151

Basic Materials

• West Texas Intermediate slipped to around 63.20 in early Asian trade Tuesday, pressured by oversupply concerns. Traders await the API weekly crude inventory report later in the day. Rising geopolitical risks may help limit further losses.
• Gold (XAU/USD) eased slightly after hitting a record near 3,759–3,760 as traders turned cautious in overbought conditions. A dovish Fed outlook and geopolitical tensions continue to support the metal, though strong equity markets act as a headwind.
  Watchlist: GOLD: 2600-3760, US Oil: 55.60-75.80

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

08:30 am: USD FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks
09:45 am: USD Flash Manufacturing, Services PMI
09:50 am: USD President Trump speaks
10:00 am: USD Richmond Manufacturing Index
10:00 am: USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
12:35 pm: USD FED Chair Powell Speaks


Earnings

BMO (Before Market Open):

AZO                 Autozone Inc.

AMC (After Market Close): MU, WOR, AIR



The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!