All Eyes on the Fed: Sell the News or Buy the Hype? 17/09/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:

• Stocks ticked down modestly on Tuesday as investors locked in some gains ahead of a much-anticipated Federal Reserve decision on interest rates. The S&P 500 slipped 0.13%, while the Nasdaq Composite eased 0.07%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 125.55 points, or 0.27%. Major drivers of the bull market retreated, with Nvidia and Microsoft shedding 1.6% and 1.2%, respectively. Alphabet, Google’s parent company, and Palantir also pulled back.
• Traders are set to scrutinize Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for hints about the direction of monetary policy. The Fed’s two-day policy meeting, which began Tuesday, is widely expected to deliver the first rate cut since December

All Eyes on the Fed: Sell the News or Buy the Hype?

• The Fed’s decision comes at 2 p.m. ET today, alongside a new dot plot projecting rates through 2027. Policymakers face the challenge of balancing tariff-driven price spikes against weakening jobs data, after the BLS cut job growth estimates by nearly one million. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Trump could accept hikes if inflation accelerates, but retail sales show consumers remain resilient.
• A CNBC survey found most economists view Trump’s pressure as a threat to Fed independence, while new governor Stephen Miran unsettled markets by hinting at a “third mandate” to manage long-term rates. CME FedWatch indicates a 96% chance of a 25-basis-point cut. The real question: will Powell’s tone fuel this relentless bull market, or stop it?

Stocks on the move:

• Hims & Hers Health (HIMS): Shares of the telehealth firm slid about 7% after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued a warning letter, saying the company’s website claims about compounded semaglutide products were “false or misleading.”
• SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG): The solar equipment maker advanced 5.7%. While no clear catalyst was identified, Tuesday’s rally lifted the stock more than 11% for the week.
• Steel Dynamics (STLD): The steel producer jumped over 5% after issuing stronger-than-expected third-quarter guidance. The company projects earnings per share between $2.60 and $2.64, ahead of the $2.58 FactSet consensus.
• Rocket Lab (RKLB):  Shares of the space launch company tumbled 10% after it unveiled plans to raise up to $500 million through a common stock offering.

Watchlist: TSLA, CRWV, ORCL, NVDA, HIMS, JPM, AAPL

Today’s action

• Asia-Pacific equities traded mixed on Wednesday, following Wall Street’s decline as investors awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, where a rate cut is widely expected. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was little changed amid volatile trading, while the Topix slipped 0.4%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.63%. In South Korea, the Kospi fell 0.75% and the Kosdaq lost 0.38%. By contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 1.35%.
• U.S. stock futures were steady late Tuesday as traders positioned for the Fed’s decision and forward guidance. S&P 500 futures edged up 0.02%, Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.02%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 13 points, or 0.03%. All eyes now turn to the Fed today.

Bitcoin

• Crypto markets steadied Tuesday as traders positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve’s expected rate cut, a decision that could provide a bullish spark for digital assets. Bitcoin hovered near $116,655 at the Wall Street open, with analysts warning of possible long liquidations as markets flipped short ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.
• Meanwhile, gold briefly surged to fresh record highs above $3,700 before pulling back, underscoring the cautious tone across risk assets. With the Fed’s policy outlook in focus and a shakeup among governors adding uncertainty, both crypto and traditional markets are bracing for heightened volatility.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 99 000-125 000, Ethereum: 4000-4980, Solana: 160-214

Forex

• The Japanese yen held near late-July highs in Asia on Wednesday, even as the U.S. dollar edged higher. Traders stayed cautious ahead of the Fed’s policy decision later today and the Bank of Japan’s meeting starting Thursday, with divergent outlooks likely to steer USD/JPY.
• EUR/USD slipped to 1.1855, breaking a four-day advance. Downside looks limited as markets have fully priced in a 25 bp Fed cut, while Germany’s ZEW sentiment improved in September.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0700-1.1880, USD/JPY: 140-151

Basic Materials

• Gold (XAU/USD) eased to around $3,680 in Asia on Wednesday, retreating from Tuesday’s record above $3,700 as the U.S. dollar staged a modest rebound. Still, dovish Fed expectations and rising geopolitical tensions are seen limiting the downside ahead of the policy decision.
• WTI crude hovered near $64.25, extending gains on concerns over Russian supply risks and a softer dollar. Traders now look to the IEA stockpiles report and the Fed’s announcement later today for fresh direction.
  Watchlist: GOLD: 2600-3700, US Oil: 55.60-75.80

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

08:30 am: USD Housing Starts, Building Permits
10:00 am: USD Crude Oil Inventories
02:00 pm: USD Federal Funds Rate
02:30 pm: FOMC Press Conference


Earnings

BMO (Before Market Open):

GIS                                   General Mills
MANU                             Manchester United Ltd

AMC (After Market Close): CBRL, BLSH



The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!