Bulls charge on CPI data 13/08/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:

• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both notched new record closes on Tuesday after a cooler-than-anticipated inflation reading boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve could lower interest rates as soon as next month. The broad-market S&P climbed 1.13% to finish at 6,445.76, while the tech-focused Nasdaq advanced 1.39% to 21,681.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 483.52 points, or 1.10%, ending the session at 44,458.61.
• The latest inflation figures eased investor concerns that President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff measures might drive U.S. prices higher. Rate-cut expectations surged in response, with CME’s FedWatch Tool showing traders now see a 94% probability of a September cut, alongside increased wagers on further reductions in October and December.

Trump to Goldman CEO: ‘Hire New Economist’

• President Donald Trump on Tuesday aimed at Goldman Sachs (GS) CEO David Solomon, suggesting he should replace the bank’s chief economist or “just focus on being a DJ,” after Goldman’s Jan Hatzius warned that U.S. consumers will bear a growing share of tariff costs. Trump, touting what he called “massive” tariff revenue, nearly $28 billion in July, per the Treasury Department, insisted duties have not fueled inflation and claimed that companies and foreign governments, not Americans, are covering most of the costs.
• He criticized Goldman for failing to “give credit where credit is due,” alleging the firm misjudged both market reaction and tariff effects. Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist since 2011, wrote Sunday that consumers had absorbed about 22% of tariff costs through June, a figure he projects will climb to 67% by October. Trump’s tariffs, including those on Chinese goods, have been adjusted or delayed multiple times, reducing their immediate impact.

Stocks on the move:

• “Squawk Box” will spotlight the BNPL sector on Wednesday at 6 a.m. ET with Joe Kernen and Andrew Ross Sorkin. Block (SQ) shares have climbed 14% over the past month but remain 25% below December highs. Affirm (AFRM) is up 18% in a month yet sits 7% under its February peak. PayPal (PYPL) has slipped nearly 5% in the past month and is down 26% from December highs.
• Cava (CAVA) plunged about 22% after hours as revenue and same-store sales fell short of expectations, leaving the stock down 25% year-to-date. CNBC’s Kate Rogers will cover Cava’s miss and the broader fast-casual space on Wednesday.
• Sweetgreen (SG) dipped nearly 1% after hours and has tumbled 23% over the past week after disappointing earnings.
• Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN), parent of Outback Steakhouse, is off 27% so far in August. Brinker International (EAT), owner of Chili’s and Maggiano’s, reports earnings on Wednesday; the stock is up 6% since its last quarterly update but remains 20% below its February high.

Watchlist: EAT, CAVA, BLMN, SG, SQ, PYPL, AAPL, CRWV, CRCL

Today’s action

• Asian markets climbed on Wednesday, following Wall Street’s gains on hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts. By 9:45 a.m. local time (9:45 p.m. ET Tuesday), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 1%, while China’s CSI 300 added 0.33%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 hit a new high.
• U.S. futures were mixed after a record-setting session fueled by softer inflation data. S&P 500 futures gained 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.5%, and Dow futures dipped 14 points. Small caps outperformed on Tuesday, with the Russell 2000 surging nearly 3%. In after-hours trade, CoreWeave slid 9% after a mixed quarter despite strong revenue growth. Traders now await Thursday’s producer price index for further clues on the inflation outlook.

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin traded steady above $121,000 on Monday as traders awaited U.S. inflation data that could set the stage for the next leg higher. Analysts say a softer CPI print this week could push the world’s largest cryptocurrency toward new all-time highs.
• In regulatory headlines, Terraform Labs founder Do Kwon pleaded guilty in a U.S. court to fraud charges tied to the $40 billion TerraUSD and Luna collapse, agreeing to forfeit $19 million. Meanwhile, spot Ethereum ETFs recorded over $1 billion in inflows on Aug. 11, led by BlackRock’s ETHA fund, underscoring continued institutional interest. Stablecoin issuer Circle also launched ARC, a new layer-1 blockchain built for payments and capital markets.
  Watchlist: BTC: 99,000–123,000 | ETH: 4,000–4,350 | SOL: 200–260

Forex

• The yen slipped in Asian trade on Wednesday, pressured by doubts over the Bank of Japan’s next rate hike and a positive risk tone. Diverging BoJ–Fed policy outlooks limit losses, while charts still suggest more upside for USD/JPY.
• EUR/USD gained in Asia as September Fed rate cut expectations weighed on the dollar, offsetting weak German and eurozone ZEW sentiment data. Traders await comments from Fed officials later Wednesday.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.1000–1.1690 | USD/JPY: 140–162

Basic Materials

• Gold (XAU/USD) edged higher in Asia on Wednesday, extending its rebound from $3,331 after U.S. CPI data reinforced expectations for a September Fed rate cut. A softer dollar supports the metal, though upbeat risk sentiment caps gains. Traders now look to FOMC member speeches for fresh cues.
• WTI crude traded near $62.50 after OPEC+ raised its 2025 oil demand forecast and cut supply growth estimates for non-OPEC+ producers. Gains follow Tuesday’s 1% loss but were tempered by a surprise 1.5 million-barrel U.S. API inventory build and caution ahead of Friday’s U.S.–Russia meeting.
  Watchlist: Gold: 2,600–3,500 | US Oil: 55.60–75.80

Economic Calendar (EST):

08:00 am: USD FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
10:30 am: USD Crude Oil Inventories
01:00 pm: USD FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks


Earnings:

VG                     Venture Global
ESLT                 Elbit System Ltd.
CAE                   CAE Inc.
EAT                   Brinker International

AMC (After Market Close): CSCO, COHR, STN


The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!