Markets mixed, bulls still steering the week 08/08/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:

• On Thursday, the Dow Jones fell 0.5%, the S&P 500 dipped 0.08%, while the Nasdaq rose nearly 0.4%. The Dow swung sharply intraday, up 305 points at its high and down 394 at its low. Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs took effect at midnight, with steep rates such as 41% on Syria and 40% on Laos and Myanmar. The average U.S. import tariff now stands near 18%, the highest in almost a century, according to the WSJ.
• Markets held steady, helped by exemptions. Apple’s Tim Cook showcased domestic manufacturing plans at the White House, avoiding the latest sanctions. Others, including producers of Brazilian orange juice and Chilean copper, are seeking similar waivers. Investors remain focused on the next steps in Trump’s trade policy.

Wall Street soars as Main Street struggles

• U.S. stocks continue to hover near record highs, fueled by strong Q2 earnings from financials and tech, especially megacap names riding the AI boom. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up sharply this quarter, with small caps also breaking out above a “golden cross,” a bullish technical signal. Cyclical sectors like industrials, consumer discretionary, and materials are also gaining momentum. Beneath the market’s upbeat mood, economic data is less encouraging. July’s weak jobs report signaled slowing hiring, the ISM services index showed stagnation, and inflation remains sticky. Trade tensions, including Trump’s newly enacted tariffs, are adding to costs and dampening business sentiment.
• Investors are increasingly betting on a September Fed rate cut, with CME data showing a 91% probability for a 25-basis-point move. However, uncertainty lingers over how much the Fed will cut and whether it will revive growth. While earnings from banks and tech firms are beating expectations, they reveal little evidence of robust consumer health. The gap between Wall Street’s rally and the economy’s soft spots is widening, raising questions about how long bullish sentiment can hold before reality catches up.

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Stocks on the move:

• Wynn Resorts (WYNN): Shares eased 1% after Q2 earnings of $1.09 per share missed LSEG estimates of $1.21, with revenue of $1.74 billion coming in just below the $1.75 billion forecast.
• Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO): The video game maker climbed nearly 4% after reporting fiscal Q1 revenue of $1.42 billion, topping LSEG’s $1.31 billion estimate, and lifting its full-year bookings outlook.
• Block (SQ): Shares jumped nearly 7% after the Cash App owner raised its full-year gross profit forecast to $10.17 billion, up from a prior outlook of $9.96 billion.
• Microchip Technology (MCHP): The semiconductor maker slid 6% after issuing underwhelming guidance. It expects fiscal Q2 adjusted EPS between $0.30 and $0.36 versus FactSet’s $0.31 consensus, and revenue of $1.11–$1.15 billion compared with the $1.13 billion estimate.
• Pinterest (PINS): Shares sank 10% after Q2 adjusted EPS of $0.33 missed LSEG forecasts of $0.35.
• Texas Roadhouse (TXRH): The restaurant chain dipped over 2% as Q2 EPS of $1.86 came in shy of the $1.90 FactSet consensus, though revenue of $1.51 billion slightly beat expectations of $1.50 billion.

Watchlist: PINS, SQ, TTWO, WYNN, FIG, CART, AKAM, TRIP, EXPE, SOUN

Today’s action

• Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Friday after two of Wall Street’s three major benchmarks ended lower in the prior session. Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped more than 2%, while Indian equities slipped as investors weighed Trump’s newly announced 50% tariffs on the country. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 0.76%, and China’s CSI 300 dipped 0.25%.
• In the U.S., stock futures edged higher, with Dow futures up 84 points (0.19%) and both S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures gaining 0.2%. Traders are eyeing earnings from Under Armour (UAA), AMC Networks (AMCX), and Wendy’s (WEN), with no major economic releases scheduled.

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin climbed nearly 2% to about $117,300, and Ethereum surged over 5% past $3,870 after President Trump signed an order allowing 401(k) plans to invest in crypto, real estate, and private equity.
• Bitcoin ETFs saw about $92 million in net inflows, ending a four-day slump.Corporate adoption is also accelerating, with more than 150 public companies allocating roughly $98 billion to Bitcoin this year, reflecting growing institutional confidence and political support.
  Watchlist: BTC: 99,000–123,000 | ETH: 3,000–3,800 | SOL: 200–260

Forex

• The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under pressure in Thursday’s Asian session amid reports that former President Donald Trump may slap a 15% tariff on all Japanese imports. Coupled with uncertainty over the Bank of Japan’s next rate move and a broadly risk-on market mood, the JPY has attracted fresh selling. The USD/JPY pair holds steady near 147.50, supported by a mild USD rebound from recent lows.
• Meanwhile, EUR/USD is trading slightly higher near 1.1665, as expectations for a September Fed rate cut grow following soft U.S. job data. The pair also drew support from stronger-than-expected Eurozone retail sales, which rose 3.1% YoY in June. Markets now look ahead to German industrial production, the ECB’s Economic Bulletin, and U.S. jobless claims for further cues.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.1000–1.1670 | USD/JPY: 140–162

Basic Materials

• Gold (XAU/USD) eased from a two-week high near $3,410 in Friday’s Asian trade as traders booked profits ahead of the weekend. A firmer U.S. dollar and upbeat equity sentiment weighed on prices, though lingering trade tensions and strong bets on a September Fed rate cut continue to provide underlying support.
• WTI crude slipped to around $63.20, pressured by expectations of potential U.S.–Russia talks after reports that Putin and Trump will meet in the coming days. The downside was cushioned by EIA data showing a larger-than-expected 3.029 million-barrel draw in U.S. crude stockpiles for the week ending August 1.
  Watchlist: Gold: 2,600–3,500 | US Oil: 55.60–75.80

Economic Calendar (EST):

10:20 am: FOMC Member Bostic Speaks


Earnings:

EMA                    Emera Inc.
LAMR                  Lamar Advertising Company
PAA                     Plains All American L.P.
TEM                    Tempus Ai
ESNT                   Essent Group

AMC (After Market Close): Enjoy your weekend!

The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!