Markets slide after Record July 04/08/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:

• Stocks declined sharply on Friday as August trading commenced, with investors reacting to mounting evidence of an economic slowdown and newly adjusted tariff policies announced by President Donald Trump. The revised duties now range from 10% to 41%, and products rerouted to sidestep earlier levies will face an extra 40% charge, according to the White House. Canada, one of America's primary trading partners, will now be subject to a 35% tariff, up from the previous 25%.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.23%, the S&P 500 retreated 1.60%, and the Nasdaq Composite sank 2.24%, its most significant single-day loss since April 21. All major indexes closed the week with losses. The July jobs report came in weaker than expected, and bank stocks declined sharply amid worries that a slowing economy could dampen lending activity. The downbeat economic data boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates sooner than anticipated. Following the jobs report, traders placed the probability of a September rate cut at roughly 86%, based on CME Fed futures data.

Markets slide after Record July

• After a calm, record-setting July, markets opened in August with sharp losses. The S&P 500 dropped 1.6% Friday, its worst day since April, following weaker-than-expected job numbers and new tariff announcements from President Trump. July saw unusually low volatility, with the S&P 500 logging 10 record closes and no daily moves over 1%. But that calm ended abruptly with news that only 73,000 jobs were added last month, alongside downward revisions to May and June.
• Investor anxiety was further stoked by Trump’s announcement of increased tariffs, military posturing in response to Russian threats, and plans to fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, raising concerns over data credibility. The Dow fell 1.23%, the Nasdaq slid 2.24%, and the VIX spiked to 20.38 from below 15. Analysts say the pullback may continue, as markets enter a seasonally weak stretch, though strong earnings and a stable 4.2% unemployment rate could limit downside. “Unless there’s a major shock, investors will likely buy the dip if it stays under 10%,” said Thomas Martin of Globalt.

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Stocks on the move:

• Marvell Technology (MRVL): Shares of the semiconductor firm dropped around 6%, mirroring a broader tech sell-off. The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) declined by over 1%.
• UnitedHealth Group (UNH): The health insurance leader lost more than 3% after announcing that Wayne DeVeydt will step in as chief financial officer starting Sept. 2. Current CFO John Rex will transition to a role as “strategic advisor to the CEO” on the same date.
• Rocket Companies (RKT): The mortgage provider’s stock jumped 13% after reporting second-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street’s expectations on both revenue and earnings. Rocket also disclosed $29.1 billion in closed loan originations during the quarter, an 18% year-over-year increase.
• Moderna (MRNA): Shares slid 7% after the biotech company lowered the upper end of its full-year revenue forecast by $300 million, adjusting it to a range of $1.5 billion to $2.2 billion, down from the previous $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion. Despite this, Moderna surpassed Q2 projections for both profit and sales.
• Reddit (RDDT): The social media firm surged 21% after delivering second-quarter earnings that topped analyst forecasts.

Watchlist: PLTR, XOM, RDDT, AMZN, MSFT, TSN, JPM, TSLA

Today’s action

• Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on Monday as investors digested the latest U.S. tariffs and a soft July jobs report, both of which dragged Wall Street lower on Friday and fueled expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped more than 2% in early trading, while the yen weakened against the dollar. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 0.23%, and China’s CSI 300 fell 0.42%. Oil prices edged lower, despite OPEC+ finalizing a series of major output hikes.
• U.S. stock futures inched higher. S&P 500 futures rose 0.41%, Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.44%, and Dow Jones futures gained 153 points, or 0.35%. Still, markets remain on edge heading into August, historically the weakest month for the Dow and the second-worst for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin fell 5% over the weekend, dropping from $118,330 to $112,300, as August, historically a weak month for crypto, got off to a rocky start. Analysts say holding above $110,000 is key for a potential retest of all-time highs. “A lot depends on risk sentiment after Friday’s weak U.S. jobs report and new tariffs,” said IG Markets’ Tony Sycamore, as Bitcoin recovered to $114,800 on Monday.
• Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) celebrated its 10th anniversary, trading near $3,538. Renewed institutional interest has revived hopes of a run at its 2021 peak, with nearly $85 billion currently locked in its DeFi ecosystem.
  Watchlist: BTC: 99,000–123,000 | ETH: 3,000–3,800 | SOL: 200–260

Forex

• The Japanese Yen slipped on Monday as fading Bank of Japan rate hike bets and political uncertainty weighed on sentiment. The USD/JPY pair bounced off the 147.00 level, supported by a recovering U.S. Dollar. The BoJ signaled policy caution amid global trade risks, while firming expectations of a September Fed rate cut may limit further USD upside.
• The EUR/USD slipped to around 1.1560 in early Monday trading, pulling back after a 1.5% gain in the previous session. Despite weak U.S. labor data, the Euro may find support as the ECB is expected to postpone rate cuts for now.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.1000–1.1650 | USD/JPY: 140–162

Basic Materials

• WTI crude fell to around $66.35 in early Asian trading on Monday as OPEC+ approved an additional 547,000 bpd production increase starting in September. The move adds to recent output hikes and raises concerns over a potential supply glut. Sluggish U.S. job data further stoked fears of slowing demand.
• Gold (XAU/USD) dipped to near $3,360, snapping a two-day climb as a rebounding U.S. Dollar pressured the metal. However, weak U.S. nonfarm payroll data and renewed tariff concerns could bolster safe-haven demand and limit downside.
  Watchlist: Gold: 2,600–3,500 | US Oil: 55.60–75.80

Economic Calendar (EST):

10:00 am: Factory Orders


Earnings:

IDXX                   IDEXX Laboratories
BNTX                  BioNTech SE
ON                      ON Semiconductor
L                         Loews Corp.
TSN                    Tyson Foods

AMC (After Market Close): PLTR, MELI, VRTX


The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!