Tesla dips on cautious outlook 24/07/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:

• Earlier Wednesday, the S&P 500 advanced 0.78%, marking its 12th all-time closing high of the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.14%, finishing just a few points below a new record. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite added 0.61%, closing above the 21,000 mark for the first time. Equities were lifted by renewed optimism on the trade front. Sentiment further improved after the Financial Times reported that the U.S. was making headway on a potential trade agreement with the European Union.
• Among the “Magnificent Seven” tech giants, Alphabet and Tesla released earnings after the bell. Alphabet gained 2% following a solid second-quarter beat on both earnings and revenue. In contrast, Tesla fell 4% in choppy after-hours trading, as investors reacted negatively to a second consecutive drop in automotive revenue. Elsewhere, IBM declined 5%, dragging on Dow futures.

Tesla dips on cautious outlook

• Tesla (TSLA) hit the mark with its Q2 results, revenue and profit aligned with expectations, but the real drama came after the bell. During the earnings call, CEO Elon Musk warned of “a few rough quarters ahead,” sparking a more than 4% slide in the stock. While the financials didn’t surprise, investor confidence took a hit as Musk highlighted rising tariff costs (~$300M), shrinking regulatory credit revenue, and broader demand headwinds.
• He also voiced discomfort over his limited ownership stake and opened the door to possible governance shifts, remarks that added to the unease. Tesla did announce the expansion of its robotaxi program in Austin and beyond, but with vague timelines and little detail, it wasn’t enough to ease market nerves. Analysts called the results “a non-event,” suggesting it was Musk’s words, not the numbers, that moved the stock.

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Stocks on the move:

• International Business Machines (IBM): Shares of the long-established tech firm declined 5% after software revenue fell short of Wall Street forecasts in Q2, coming in at $7.39 billion versus the $7.43 billion estimate from StreetAccount. However, both adjusted earnings and overall revenue exceeded expectations.
• Alphabet (GOOGL): The tech heavyweight rose 3% after posting second-quarter earnings and revenue that beat analysts’ forecasts. The company reported earnings of $2.31 per share and $96.43 billion in revenue, compared to consensus estimates of $2.18 per share and $94 billion, according to LSEG.
• ServiceNow (NOW): The enterprise software provider surged 7% following a strong earnings beat and an upgrade to its full-year subscription revenue guidance, now expected between $12.775 billion and $12.795 billion. That’s up from its prior forecast and above FactSet’s $12.66 billion consensus.
• Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG): Shares of the fast-casual restaurant chain tumbled 9% after lowering its full-year same-store sales outlook to flat growth, down from a prior estimate of low single-digit growth. Q2 revenue came in at $3.06 billion, below the $3.11 billion anticipated by analysts polled by LSEG.

Watchlist: GOOGL, TSLA, IBM, NOW, CMG, VKTX, LVS, HON, UNP

Today’s action

• Asian markets opened in positive territory Thursday, lifted by momentum from the U.S.–Japan trade deal and growing optimism around a potential agreement with the EU. Japan led regional gains, with major indexes hitting record highs. South Korea also moved higher, while China and Hong Kong markets traded mostly flat. Tech stocks in Hong Kong saw mild pressure, dragging the Hang Seng Tech Index slightly lower. 
• In U.S. markets, S&P 500 futures were steady after the benchmark notched another record close on Wednesday. Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.4%, while Dow futures slipped 0.2%, or 104 points. Ahead of Thursday’s open, key earnings are expected from Dow Inc. (DOW), Honeywell (HON), American Airlines (AAL), and Union Pacific (UNP). Traders are also closely watching weekly jobless claims, PMI figures for July, and new home sales data for June.

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin (BTC) remains in a tight range around $99,500 as traders assess institutional flows and regulatory developments. Reports of a potential delay in Bitcoin ETF approval weighed on sentiment, while corporate holdings remained stable. Ethereum (ETH) held above $3,100, and Solana (SOL) stayed near $215.
  Watchlist: BTC: 99,000–123,000 | ETH: 3,000–3,800 | SOL: 200–260

Forex

• The EUR/USD pair pulled back from a two-week high of 1.1761, trading near 1.1740 during Wednesday’s Asian session, as the U.S. Dollar (USD) strengthened following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a trade agreement with Japan. Trump also took aim at Fed Chair Jerome Powell, stating he would be “out in eight months.” Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates steady at its Thursday meeting, limiting upside for the euro.
• The Japanese Yen initially gained after the trade deal news but reversed sharply amid political uncertainty, as reports suggested Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba may resign this month. The USD/JPY pair hovered around the 147.00 level, supported by a modest USD rebound from two-week lows and intraday selling pressure on the yen.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.1000–1.1850 | USD/JPY: 140–162

Basic Materials

• Gold (XAU/USD) remained steady near $3,390 on Thursday, caught between competing forces of a softer U.S. Dollar and improving risk appetite. While geopolitical tensions and central bank rate speculation continue to offer underlying support, bullish momentum has paused as traders look to incoming inflation data.
• WTI crude climbed to $65.80 following a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. oil inventories, as reported by the EIA. Optimism surrounding global demand, driven by stronger trade flows and a potential increase in Chinese imports, also helped boost sentiment. Supply-side concerns remain in focus as hurricane season ramps up in the Gulf of Mexico.
  Watchlist: Gold: 2,600–3,500 | US Oil: 55.60–75.80

Economic Calendar (EST):

08:30 am: Unemployment Claims
09:45 am: Flash Services, Manuf. PMI
10:00 am: New Home Sales


Earnings:

BMO (Before Market Open)

HON              Honeywell Int.
UNP              Union Pacific Corp.
BX                 Blackstone Inc.
VLO               Valero Energy Corp.

AMC (After Market Close): INTC, NEM, DLR


The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!