Bulls Stay Resilient Across Markets 18/07/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:

• Equities rose on Thursday, buoyed by encouraging economic indicators and a wave of corporate earnings announcements. The S&P 500 edged up 0.54% to notch a record close, its ninth of the year. The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.75%, marking its tenth all-time closing high of 2025. Both indices also reached new intraday peaks. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.52%. Quarterly earnings results released this week have largely surpassed analysts' forecasts, boosting investor optimism.
• Economic reports released Thursday signaled continued resilience in the U.S. economy. Weekly jobless claims declined for the fifth consecutive week, hitting their lowest point since April. Additionally, June retail sales increased more than anticipated, according to fresh figures from the U.S. Census Bureau. AMC’s stock rallied as Benchmark raised its projections amid a rebound in movie theater attendance. Netflix also posted better-than-expected earnings, with revenue expanding 16% in the second quarter.

Waller calls for urgent rate cuts

• Fed Governor Christopher Waller urged immediate interest rate cuts on Thursday, arguing that the U.S. labor market is weaker than it appears and that tariff-driven inflation is only temporary. Speaking to economists in New York, Waller said economic growth has slowed notably, warning that risks to jobs have increased. Waller, considered a possible Trump pick to replace Fed Chair Powell, is one of just two Fed governors currently supporting a July rate cut. While Trump has called for major cuts, Waller cites genuine economic weakness as his reason.
• In contrast, most Fed officials prefer waiting for more inflation data, describing the labor market as stable. New York Fed President John Williams highlighted tariffs as pushing prices higher in coming months, a view Waller rejected. He argued tariffs cause short-term price increases but not lasting inflation, with much of the cost absorbed by businesses. Pointing to weak private-sector job growth, the slowest since October 2024, Waller warned payroll gains are nearly stagnant. He said early rate cuts would help the Fed stay ahead of any downturn, supporting the possibility of another small cut later this year if needed.

Stocks on the move:

• Lucid Group (LCID): Shares of the EV manufacturer soared 36% after a Thursday press release revealed that at least 20,000 Lucid vehicles will be integrated over six years with Nuro Driver technology via Uber’s ride-hailing platform.
• Elevance Health (ELV): The health insurer’s stock slid 12% after reporting Q2 earnings of $8.84 per share, missing LSEG’s forecast of $8.95. However, revenue reached $49.42 billion, topping the $48.23 billion projection.
• Albemarle (ALB): Shares jumped 7% as lithium prices climbed following China’s directive for Zangge Mining to suspend operations in Qinghai.
• PepsiCo (PEP): The beverage and snack giant climbed 7% after beating second-quarter expectations on both earnings and sales, reporting adjusted EPS of $2.12 on $22.73 billion in revenue, above LSEG’s estimates of $2.03 EPS and $22.28 billion in revenue.
• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM): Shares gained 3% after Q2 profit surged 61% year-over-year to a record high, surpassing analysts’ projections.

Watchlist: NFLX, IBKR, AXP, SCHW, MMM, SLB, COIN, ALLY

Today’s action

• Australian equities reached a new record high as Asia-Pacific markets showed mixed performance, following Wall Street’s advance driven by upbeat U.S. economic data and stronger-than-expected corporate earnings.
• In overnight trading, S&P 500 futures edged up 0.08%, Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.07%, and Dow Jones futures climbed 49 points, or about 0.1%, after the S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high. Shares of Netflix dipped more than 1% in extended trading after the company posted its latest quarterly results, which investors found underwhelming despite strong headline growth. Looking ahead, investors are focused on upcoming earnings reports from 3M and American Express as well as the release of preliminary July consumer sentiment data, which will offer fresh insights into U.S. economic conditions.

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin (BTC-USD) rose over 1% to trade at $120,692.67 on Thursday after the U.S. House passed a long-awaited bill establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, digital assets tied to fiat currencies such as the U.S. dollar.
• Ether (ETH-USD) surged more than 5% to $3,634.33. The bill, supported by the crypto industry, now heads to President Donald Trump, who is expected to sign it into law.
  Watchlist: BTC: 99,000–123,000 | ETH: 2,000–3,100 | SOL: 140–220

Forex

• Japanese Yen remains under pressure near a three-month low, as reduced expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike continue to weigh on the currency. Japan’s latest CPI report failed to offer meaningful support, and traders remain cautious ahead of Sunday’s upper house elections. A broader risk-on mood is also diminishing demand for the safe-haven yen.
• Meanwhile, EUR/USD rises toward 1.1630 in Friday’s Asian session, as the US Dollar weakens following dovish signals from Fed officials. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said two rate cuts this year are a "reasonable" expectation. Markets now anticipate Fed easing to begin in September, while hopes for a US-EU trade deal before August 1 further support the euro.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.1000–1.1850 | USD/JPY: 140–162

Basic Materials

• Gold (XAU/USD) remains subdued near $3,309 in the Friday Asian session, lacking clear direction despite recent support from a weaker US Dollar. Dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller pressured the dollar, offering some relief to gold. However, reduced expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts could limit further USD declines, keeping gold gains capped.
• Meanwhile, WTI crude oil advances to $66.15, supported by rising Middle East tensions and strong seasonal demand, which fuels supply concerns. Still, uncertainty over potential tariffs may restrict oil’s upside in the near term.
  Watchlist: Gold: 2,600–3,500 | US Oil: 55.60–75.80

Economic Calendar (EST):

08:30 am: USD Building Permits
08:30 am: USD Housing Starts
10:00 am: USD Consumer Sentiment
10:00 am: USD Inflation Expectations


Earnings:

BMO (Before Market Open)
AXP                American Express Company
SCHW            The Charles Schwab Corp.
MMM              3M Company
SLB                 Schlumberger
HBAN              Huntington Bancshares
ALLY               Ally Financial

AMC (After Market Close): Enjoy your weekend!


The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!