Rally Mode On: Powell Warns, Traders Shrug 25/06/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:

• U.S. stocks soared on Tuesday as investors embraced risk and pushed the S&P 500 within striking distance of its all-time high. The S&P 500 rose 1.1%, the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.2%, or 512 points. Markets were buoyed by falling oil prices, upbeat earnings guidance from key tech names, and fading geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
• A sharp drop in crude—down nearly 6% over two sessions—helped ease inflation concerns and support consumer sentiment. Treasury yields edged lower, further lifting equities. Analysts noted a wave of risk-on flows, with investors rotating into growth and tech stocks. The rally came despite lingering macro headwinds, suggesting traders are positioning for a soft landing scenario ahead of Q2 earnings season.

Powell doubles down on inflation warning

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers on Tuesday that the central bank must remain vigilant against the risk of inflation becoming entrenched. He emphasized that the Fed would not cut interest rates prematurely, particularly with tariffs potentially exerting upward pressure on prices. 
• Powell dismissed political criticism, including recent comments from former President Trump, and affirmed the Fed’s independence. He noted that while inflation has eased significantly from its peak, more evidence is needed before policy can shift. The message reinforced the Fed’s patient stance, even as markets bet on cuts later this year.

Stocks on the move:

• Uber (UBER):  Shares of the ride-hailing giant surged nearly 8% after Alphabet’s Waymo launched public robotaxi rides in Atlanta via the Uber app, expanding their autonomous vehicle partnership and fueling investor enthusiasm.
• Snowflake (SNOW): The cloud data warehousing firm gained 4% following an upgrade from Morgan Stanley, which raised its rating to "Overweight" from "Equal Weight." The firm sees AI-driven demand as a major growth catalyst and projects over 22% upside for the stock.
• Advance Auto Parts (AAP): The auto parts retailer tumbled nearly 9% after Goldman Sachs cut its rating to "Sell" from "Neutral," citing weakening fundamentals and softer industry trends.
• Coinbase (COIN): The cryptocurrency platform rallied 10% as digital assets rebounded, with Bitcoin and altcoins climbing amid shifting geopolitical conditions. The move lifted sentiment across the crypto ecosystem, boosting other blockchain-exposed equities.
• Chevron (CVX): The oil major dropped 1.9% as crude prices fell for a second day. Energy stocks broadly underperformed amid fading geopolitical risk.

Watchlist: MU, AAPL, COIN, CVX, AMD, PAYX, GIS, JPM

Today’s action

• Asian markets traded mostly higher on Wednesday, tracking Wall Street gains. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.61%, South Korea’s Kospi added 0.45%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed 0.32%, supported by tech and consumer cyclicals.
• U.S. futures edged higher in early trading. Dow futures were up 84 points (0.2%), S&P 500 futures gained 0.18%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.31%. Oil prices remained soft, extending their pullback. Market attention remains fixed on upcoming economic data, including consumer confidence and Fed commentary. The cooling inflation outlook and steady yields continue to support equity sentiment into quarter-end.

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin held near $106,300 on Tuesday after rebounding from weekend lows below $99,000. The world’s largest cryptocurrency gained more than 4% in 24 hours, while Ethereum (ETH) advanced 5.2% to $2,410. 
• Traders pointed to easing geopolitical fears and improving risk sentiment as key drivers. Regulatory clarity and ETF-related inflows continued to support crypto assets, with altcoins like Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX), and Dogecoin (DOGE) seeing 5–9% gains.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 99 000–112 000, Ethereum: 1500–2800, Solana: 80–183

Forex

• EUR/USD traded firm near 1.1640 on Tuesday, buoyed by broad dollar weakness and dovish Fed commentary. The pair remains above key moving averages, with bullish momentum intact.
• USD/JPY hovered near 146.90, showing mild softness as risk-on flows diminished demand for the yen. Traders are awaiting Japanese CPI figures later this week, which could influence BoJ policy expectations.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0700–1.1650, USD/JPY: 140–151

Basic Materials

• Oil prices fell further on Tuesday, with WTI crude trading around $68.40 amid easing Middle East tensions and subdued demand expectations. Brent crude followed a similar path, down nearly 6% in two sessions.
• Gold (XAU/USD) hovered just below $3,375 as investors balanced improved risk appetite with lingering inflation concerns. Lower Treasury yields and geopolitical uncertainty provided a backstop for bullion.
  Watchlist: GOLD: 2600–3500, US Oil: 55.60–75.80

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time
10:00 am: USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
10:00 am: USD New Home Sales
10:30 am: USD Crude Oil Inventories (API)


Earnings

BMO (Before the US Market opens):
PAYX           Paychex
GIS              General Mills
WGO           Winnebago Industries
DAKT          Daktronics
AMC (After the US Market closes): MU, JEF, WS

The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!